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E9: Dave Mcclure & Jordan Stein on YC, "Spray and Pray", and Games VCs Play

Liquidity

Fri Mar 29 2024



Y Combinator's Success and Competitive Strategies:

  • Y Combinator (YC) has a notable track record with successful public listings like Airbnb, Coinbase, Dropbox, and Instacart.
  • Despite being seen as a top competitor to YC, 500 Startups indexed into about 10% of YC companies in its early years.
  • The "spray-and-pray" strategy was pioneered by firms like SV Angel and First Round Capital, focusing on investing in numerous startups for higher chances of success.
  • Over time, YC scaled up its batch sizes and diversified investments to include more women, minorities, and international founders.

Venture Capital Dynamics and Entry Point Evaluation:

  • Venture capitalists are increasingly focusing on entry point evaluations due to high valuations at demo days where FOMO tactics are used to maximize valuation.
  • Investors are advised to meet companies at demo days but wait one year post-funding for better valuation alignment based on traction.

Capital Call Requests and VC Bullishness:

  • Carta reported an increase in capital call requests signaling VC bullishness driven by AI hype and rising investor confidence.
  • Companies that fundraised in 2021 may now seek additional funding decisions from LPs leading to increased capital calls.
  • While not a dramatic surge, there is a statistically meaningful rise observed in capital call requests over the last quarter.

Secondary Funds and Liquidity Challenges:

  • Secondary funds provide liquidity solutions amid limited exits through IPOs or acquisitions in recent years.
  • Smaller LPs seeking liquidity face challenges finding buyers for their fund positions below certain ticket sizes.
  • Accessing information and building relationships with GPs is crucial for smaller investors looking to engage in secondary transactions within the venture ecosystem.

Portfolio Secondary Deals vs. Company Secondary Transactions:

  • Portfolio secondary deals require consent from general partners of funds being bought into compared to individual company secondary transactions which attract both professional investors and casual observers interested in well-known companies like Stripe or SpaceX.

Portfolio Underwriting - Individual vs. Portfolio Secondary:

  • Evaluating a single asset in underwriting involves understanding the company's specific position, while portfolio secondary requires assessing multiple companies within a basket of assets.
  • The challenges associated with portfolio secondary were highlighted by a statement indicating that some GPs may not provide assistance in understanding each company within the basket, emphasizing the complexity involved.
  • Understanding the exit trajectory for each vehicle is crucial in portfolio secondary to navigate through evaluating various companies effectively.

Capital Calls and VC Triage:

  • Capital calls in venture capital remain consistent, ranging from $25k to $500k per fund commitment.
  • VCs have managed triage in their portfolios by gradually reducing workforce instead of resorting to significant layoffs during challenging times.
  • Despite dealing with triage effectively, there is still an anticipation of potential shutdown decisions as companies face reduced cash reserves.
  • Anecdotal evidence suggests that many companies needed substantial restructuring efforts involving gradual reductions rather than immediate large-scale layoffs.

Valuation Challenges and Regulatory Capture in Private Markets:

  • Valuations in private markets persist at high levels despite the absence of market pricing events leading to reset mechanisms for accurate valuation assessments.
  • Many VCs continue to hold their portfolios at valuations set in 2020 and 2021 without implementing proactive markdowns post-Q1 2022, potentially resulting in overvalued portfolios.
  • Concerns were raised about regulatory capture influencing private market valuations due to limited accountability and lack of market-driven pricing adjustments.

Fund Continuity Strategies and LP Expectations:

  • Funds reaching years 10 to 15 often engage in continuity strategies by creating vehicles containing high-quality assets for extended management periods.
  • Managers seek strip sales as a strategy to generate Distributed Paid In (DPI) amid limited IPO and M&A activity, particularly focusing on fundraising requirements.

Follow-On Strategy and Investment Decisions:

  • Follow-on strategy analysis emphasizes the importance of balancing doubling down on successful investments versus diversifying into new opportunities for optimal portfolio performance.

Founder Loyalty vs. Portfolio Discipline:

  • Balancing loyalty towards founders with disciplined portfolio strategies is crucial for ensuring growth potential takes precedence over sympathy bets or personal connections when making investment decisions.

Continuous Learning and Evolution of Investment Strategies:

  • Evolving investment strategies require maintaining a growth mindset, learning from past mistakes, adapting approaches based on performance evaluations to enhance overall portfolio success.

Investments in YC Ecosystem:

  • Reddit's successful IPO was highlighted as a testament to the success of investments within the Y Combinator (YC) ecosystem.
  • The importance of evaluating entry points and strategies for investing in companies from YC, particularly through opportunities like demo days, was emphasized.
  • A comparison between YC's demo day and other accelerators was discussed, showcasing the unique advantages presented by YC.

Role of Secondary Funds:

  • The role of secondary funds in current macroeconomic conditions and potential company shutdowns was analyzed.
  • Carta’s report on the rise of capital call requests was mentioned as a key factor influencing secondary funds' roles, indicating how these funds navigate economic uncertainties.

Betting on Outliers:

  • The decision-making process for doubling down on investments and betting on outliers was explored during the lightning round segment where each guest shared their top three investments.
  • Specific examples such as Mercury, Gropius (soon to be greener.com), and RecargaPay from Brazil were highlighted as successful investment choices made by the guests.

Automation in Physical Manufacturing Companies:

  • The impact of robotics and automation on enhancing the economics and productivity of physical manufacturing companies was discussed.
  • Examples like Gropius (greener.com) utilizing robotics for building prefab housing were provided to illustrate how automation is revolutionizing traditional manufacturing processes.

Investing Opportunities in Latin America:

  • Investment prospects in Latin America, especially in countries like Brazil and Mexico with reasonable valuations compared to other regions, were considered.
  • Specific instances such as RecargaPay leveraging Brazil's adoption of payment systems like PIX were cited to demonstrate the investment potential present in Latin American markets.

Event Planning Strategies for Liquidity Summit:

  • Various event planning strategies for the Liquidity Summit were deliberated upon, including activities like wine tasting, cooking classes, poker games, and board games to facilitate networking among attendees.
  • Suggestions such as pre-event facilitation of meetings between LPs and GPs through one-pagers or short videos were proposed to enhance networking opportunities at the summit.