#333 - Sanity Check on Climate Change
Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber ContentTue Sep 05 2023
Climate change:
- Global temperatures are measured using a record of thermometers, ocean observations, and satellite data.
- The accuracy of the temperature record has been verified by multiple research institutions and is based on tens of thousands of data points.
- There is a clear distinction between natural climate variability and human-induced change in global temperatures.
- Historical records show that current CO2 levels are higher than historical levels, indicating the influence of human activities.
Climate models:
- Climate models have accurately predicted future temperature increases since the 1990s.
- The central forecasts made by the IPCC in 1990 for temperature increases in the 2020s were accurate.
- Models take into account factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide's warming effect, and water vapor amplification.
- Feedback mechanisms, such as increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, are incorporated into climate models.
Temperature increase predictions:
- The range of possible temperature increases depends on the actions taken to mitigate climate change.
- Ambitious mitigation efforts can limit warming to around 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 3.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
- Continued high emissions could lead to a global average temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius (7.2 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
Feedback mechanisms:
- Water vapor amplifies the warming effect of carbon dioxide but cannot be regulated directly due to its connection with atmospheric temperature.
- Air pollution aerosols reflect sunlight back into space, resulting in cooling effects on climate.
- However, air pollution aerosols also have detrimental health impacts and their removal is necessary despite potential warming consequences.
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy:
- Building a durable political coalition around action on climate change is a major challenge.
- Addressing negative impacts on individuals and communities affected by transitioning away from fossil fuels is crucial for building support for action.
- Inequalities and injustices associated with climate action need to be addressed.
- Balancing diverse interests, such as the siting of renewable energy installations, is a challenge that requires resolution.
Cost of transitioning:
- The cost argument against transitioning to a low-carbon economy has been debunked by the decreasing costs of renewables compared to fossil fuels.
- Nuclear power can play a role in decarbonization efforts but may struggle to compete on price due to the scalability and cost-effectiveness of renewables.
- Carbon capture and storage can help transition away from fossil fuels by capturing CO2 emissions and storing them underground.
- Hydrogen production from renewable sources shows promise for providing reliable energy during intermittent periods.
Carbon tax:
- A carbon tax is one approach to incentivizing emission reductions based on market principles.
- Other approaches, such as command and control regulations, have also shown success in environmental regulation.
- Border adjustments could be used to ensure fairness between countries with different carbon pricing policies.
Expectations for the future:
- Optimism exists regarding progress made in the past decade, including decreasing emissions in most rich countries and the affordability of non-emitting technologies.
- It is expected that gradual transitions will occur as technology continues to improve and extreme events highlight the need for action.
- Building durable political coalitions, addressing displaced interests, and considering equity are essential for successful climate action.