
Global Nuclear Weapons Arsenal:
- There are approximately 12,500 nuclear weapons worldwide, with nine countries possessing them.
- The Federation of American Scientists tracks these numbers, but North Korea's arsenal remains uncertain due to lack of transparency.
Potential Scenarios in a Nuclear War:
- In the event of a mistaken nuclear war, scenarios include misunderstandings, miscalculations, or a rogue launch by a nihilistic leader.
- Targets in the US would likely include major cities, airports, and industrial bases. Washington DC is considered a primary target.
US Nuclear Response Protocol:
- Once an incoming missile is detected, data goes to three command centers: Cheyenne Mountain, beneath the Pentagon, and STRATCOM in Nebraska.
- The President must make a decision on counterattack within minutes. Launch on warning policy requires immediate response before absorbing any attack.
- Secret Service has a Counter Assault Team to move the President to safety at Raven Rock bunker outside Washington DC.
Intercepting Nuclear Missiles:
- The US has limited interceptor missiles (44 total) with a success rate between 40% and 55%.
- Interceptors are kinetic kill vehicles without explosives designed to collide with incoming warheads.
- Intercepting multiple incoming warheads simultaneously poses significant challenges.
Types of Nuclear Bombs:
- Atomic bombs were early fission bombs like those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki (15 - 20 kilotons).
- Thermonuclear or hydrogen bombs use fusion reactions for much greater power. Ivy Mike was the first thermonuclear bomb (10.4 megatons).
- The Tsar Bomba was a Russian hydrogen bomb with 50 megatons of explosive power.
Differences Between Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs:
- An atomic bomb refers to early fission bombs using uranium or plutonium as fuel.
- A hydrogen bomb is synonymous with a thermonuclear bomb that uses fusion reactions for immense destructive power.
Nuclear War Effects and Scenarios:
- A hydrogen bomb, also known as a thermonuclear bomb, can be deployed either above ground or in the air to cause mass destruction.
- Detonating a bomb 1,900 feet above the target maximizes casualties due to the blast. Exploding a bomb on the ground leads to radiation poisoning from irradiated dirt falling back down.
- The aftermath of a one megaton thermonuclear explosion includes fireballs, melted steel, hurricane-level winds, and third-degree burns on people within miles of the blast radius.
- Nuclear winter occurs after widespread fires from nuclear explosions loft soot into the troposphere, blocking out sunlight globally for seven to ten years and causing temperatures to drop significantly.
Close Calls and Risks of Nuclear War:
- In 1979, an error involving a VHS training tape almost led to a mistaken nuclear war between Russia and the United States when it was misinterpreted as missile launches.
- North Korea's unannounced missile tests pose significant risks due to their unpredictability and defiance of international norms around announcing such tests.
- Richard Garwin highlights that one nihilistic madman with access to nuclear weapons could trigger a catastrophic nuclear war, emphasizing the importance of communication and diplomacy in preventing such scenarios.
De-Escalation Efforts and Communication:
- Ronald Reagan's "Reagan reversal" reduced global nuclear warheads from 70,000 to 12,500 through improved communication with adversaries like Gorbachev.
- Annie Jacobson advocates for open discussions about existential threats like nuclear war as a means to foster understanding among nations and prevent catastrophic conflicts.
- Effective communication and dialogue are seen as crucial tools in mitigating animosity between nuclear powers and reducing the risk of accidental or intentional nuclear conflict.