
#749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA
Modern WisdomFri Feb 23 2024
Genetic Determinants of NBA Success:
- Identical twins in basketball highlight the strong genetic influence on players' abilities, with over 50% chance for both twins to reach the NBA due to shared genetics.
- Traits like height, hand size, arm length, wingspan, vertical leap, and sprinting speed are highly genetic and crucial for success in basketball.
- This genetic predisposition plays a significant role in shaping players' physical attributes and athletic capabilities necessary for excelling in the sport.
Impact of Height on Basketball Performance:
- Individuals who are seven feet or taller face a height probability of 1 in 650,000, showcasing the rarity of extreme height in basketball.
- Taller players often dominate the NBA by leveraging their physical advantages such as excelling in rebounding and shot-blocking due to their increased reach.
- Despite these advantages, taller NBA players can exhibit lower overall athleticism compared to shorter counterparts who need to excel in multiple skills to compete effectively at high levels.
Influence of Genetics on Basketball Choking:
- Tall NBA players tend to struggle more under pressure situations than shorter players, indicating a lack of mental toughness during critical moments within games.
- The lower selective pressure for tall players contributes to this tendency towards choking when faced with heightened stress during clutch moments in games.
Socioeconomic Factors Reflected in Player Names:
- NBA player names can reflect their socioeconomic backgrounds; sons of NBA players often have common names like Chris, Michael, or Marcus due to higher socioeconomic status.
- African American NBA players from higher socioeconomic backgrounds tend to have common names compared to those from lower socioeconomics who may have unique names reflecting their upbringing.
Childhood Difficulty and Clutch Performance:
- Research has shown that childhood adversity does not predict an individual's tendency to choke under pressure during basketball games.
- Studies did not find any correlation between childhood difficulty as assessed by Chat GPT rankings and choking tendencies among NBA players.
Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap's College Choices:
- Warren Buffett and Paul Millsap opted to attend less prestigious colleges over elite ones, prioritizing comfort and proximity to family.
- Despite the initial advantages of attending top colleges like Harvard or Stanford, data suggests that long-term career success may not be significantly impacted by college choice, as exemplified by Buffett and Millsap.
Importance of Skipping College for NBA Players:
- NBA players such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Rashard Lewis, and Amare Stoudemire historically outperformed expectations after skipping college and entering the draft from high school.
- Bold decisions to bypass college showcased exceptional self-awareness and capabilities in these players.
Inefficiencies in NBA Draft Evaluation:
- Flashy traits like vertical leap are often overvalued in the NBA draft process compared to essential skills like standing leap, leading to undervaluation of certain players.
- AI tools such as chat GPT have revolutionized analysis processes by reducing time requirements for tasks like data analysis without compromising quality.
Role of Hard Work in Achieving Goals:
- In pursuits heavily influenced by genetics like basketball where height is crucial, hard work can marginally enhance performance but may not fully overcome inherent limitations.
- Dedication and consistent effort differentiate top performers as evidenced by comparisons between Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal.
Potential Expansion of Book Writing Using AI Tools:
- Seth Stephens-Davidowitz highlights how AI tools have transformed data analysis and book writing processes, enhancing efficiency without sacrificing quality.
- Despite initial concerns about rapid book production using AI assistance, there is a growing recognition of technology's revolutionary role in creative endeavors.
- Future projects leveraging AI assistance hold promise for increased productivity and enjoyment derived from utilizing advanced technological solutions.