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Our 2020 Predictions For OpenAI Came True… Here’s What’s Next

My First Million

Tue Oct 17 2023



Brian Johnson:

  • Entrepreneur with interesting life story
  • Founded Braintree, acquired Venmo, and sold Braintree to PayPal for $700-800 million
  • Created brain reader technology similar to Neuralink
  • Focuses on measuring and optimizing different aspects of his body

Privacy:

  • Predicted privacy would become more important in the future
  • Mentioned DuckDuckGo as a privacy-focused search engine
  • Expected businesses to be created around privacy concerns

GPT-3:

  • Discussed GPT-3's capabilities, including generating rap lyrics in Cardi B's style
  • Correctly predicted GPT-3's success and OpenAI becoming a $100 billion company
  • Failed to capitalize on the opportunity presented by GPT-3

Clout Kitchens:

  • Proposed concept of celebrities licensing their names to restaurant brands
  • Mr. Beast Burger successfully implemented this concept but faced quality control issues and legal disputes

Clubhouse:

  • Predicted Clubhouse would fail due to growth challenges and user engagement issues
  • Correctly predicted steps taken by Clubhouse but did not predict outcome of sale or acquisition

Thrasio:

  • Thrasio's aggregator model ultimately led to its downfall due to durability issues and lack of synergy
  • Roll-up model still holds potential opportunities with struggling aggregators

Inertia is a b-tch:

  • Discussed inertia as a challenge in making predictions and taking action
  • Highlighted importance of acting on predictions rather than just discussing them

Paying attention to irrational behaviors:

  • Suggested importance of paying attention to irrational behaviors in predicting trends and opportunities

New Prediction: Beta.character.ai:

  • New prediction about Beta.character.ai without further details provided

New Prediction: Wounded unicorns:

  • New prediction about wounded unicorns without further details provided

Paid Communities:

  • Shaan Puri and Sam Parr discuss their interest in paid communities as a business opportunity.
  • Mention that paid communities can grow quickly and be profitable.
  • Note that scaling can be challenging and churn rates may be high.
  • Emphasize the importance of being meticulous about growth and taking the time to build a community slowly.

Inertia:

  • Reflect on a previous conversation where they discussed inertia as a driving force behind people's actions.
  • Talk about moments when they realized they were doing things out of inertia rather than genuine desire or belief in the opportunities.
  • Share personal experiences of questioning whether they would continue with certain projects if given a blank slate and how this realization led them to make changes in their lives.
  • Emphasize the need to regularly reassess one's actions and ask if they are still aligned with their goals and values.

Wounded Unicorns:

  • Discuss the trend of buying wounded unicorns, referring to startups that have raised venture capital but are not likely to become billion-dollar companies.
  • Mention Andrew Wilkinson's strategy of acquiring such companies at low valuations after they have reached a certain level of revenue but lack further funding prospects.
  • Highlight other individuals who have adopted this approach, including Xavier Helgesen and Sieva Kozinsky, who advertise their company's willingness to buy struggling businesses on billboards.
  • Recognize this trend as an opportunity for those willing to take advantage of undervalued assets in the startup ecosystem.

AI Chatbots:

  • Shaan Puri brings up his fascination with AI chatbot platforms like Character.ai and Replica, which have seen significant traffic numbers exceeding those of major media sites.
  • Note that many users engage with these platforms for extended periods, chatting with AI entities ranging from famous personalities to virtual companionship or even explicit content.
  • Acknowledge potential ethical concerns around such behavior but emphasize the importance of recognizing unusual or irrational behavior as an indicator of potential opportunities.
  • Suggest that there may be significant growth potential in the AI chatbot space and urge listeners to pay attention to this trend.