20VC: Perplexity's Aravind Srinivas on Will Foundation Models Commoditise, Diminishing Returns in Model Performance, OpenAI vs Anthropic: Who Wins & Why the Next Breakthrough in Model Performance will be in Reasoning
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The PitchTue Jun 04 2024
Aravind Srinivas' Introduction to Machine Learning:
- Aravind's journey into machine learning began during his undergraduate years when he participated in a contest using scikit-learn, despite having no prior knowledge of the field.
- Winning the contest boosted his confidence and sparked his interest in machine learning, leading him to further explore the subject.
Diminishing Returns in Model Performance:
- The discussion highlighted a nuanced perspective on whether scaling up models leads to diminishing returns in performance.
- While increasing compute power can still provide benefits, it requires significant effort in data curation and optimization for factors like data diversity and computation efficiency.
The Next AI Breakthrough: Reasoning:
- Models exhibit magical capabilities due to their general-purpose skills acquired from diverse training data, enabling them to perform tasks without explicit training for each specific task.
- Achieving breakthroughs in reasoning was emphasized as a crucial milestone for future advancements in AI capabilities.
Commoditization of Foundation Models:
- Current GPT-4 quality models are not yet considered commoditized due to limited alternatives available.
- Second-tier models may become commoditized, while frontier models with superior capabilities are expected to remain non-commoditized.
Building a Business Around AI Models:
- Companies were advised to focus on developing sustainable businesses beyond model training by emphasizing product development and revenue generation.
- OpenAI's success was cited as an example of creating products that resonate with users and drive recurring revenue growth.
Monetization Strategies: Advertising vs. Subscription Model:
- Discussions revolved around introducing advertising as a monetization engine while ensuring user experience integrity within the platform.
- Exploring different ad formats like Instagram-style discover features aimed at maintaining relevance and user satisfaction while generating revenue.
Implications of Ads Implementation:
- Implementing ads was seen as an opportunity for a high-margin business model if executed ethically without influencing search results or user experience negatively.
- Exploring various ad formats such as Instagram-style discover features aimed at maintaining relevance and user satisfaction while driving revenue.
Advertising Dominance of Google and Meta:
- Advertising success is heavily reliant on a substantial user base, with effectiveness increasing as the number of users grows.
- Google holds the top tier position in advertising, followed by Meta. The gap between these tech giants and other platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and Snap is significant.
- Companies like Google benefit from all advertising efforts due to their dominant market presence, showcasing the extent of ad dominance by Google and Meta.
Diversification Strategy for Revenue Generation:
- Platforms like Perplexity aim to achieve better alignment between shareholders and users through revenue diversification across subscriptions, advertisements, APIs, and enterprise services.
Enterprise Product Development Challenges:
- Developing an enterprise product presents unique challenges compared to consumer products due to differing go-to-market strategies.
- Startups must navigate complexities in enterprise sales motions while understanding that loyalty towards AI tools among enterprises is not firmly established yet.
Future Landscape of Foundation Models Commoditization:
- Application layer companies stand out as major beneficiaries from commoditized foundation models as they can leverage these models at a premium value directly with customers.
Impact of Contradictions on Startup CEOs:
- Startup CEOs face constant contradictions in decision-making processes which can be mentally taxing as reaching consensus on decisions becomes challenging.
Premortem Analysis for Startup Success:
- The success or failure of startups hinges more on execution quality rather than external competition. Inefficient use of capital and lack of focus are critical factors that could hinder success.
Long-Term Vision for AI Assistant - Perplexity:
- Aravind envisions Perplexity becoming the go-to assistant for providing accurate information and knowledge that users cannot live without even ten years into the future.