Tue Sep 19 2023

Graham Allison's Background:

• Founding dean of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government
• Professor of government with a focus on U.S. national security and defense policy
• Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy & Plans (1993-1994)
• Coordinated strategy and policy towards the states of the former Soviet Union

Thucydides' Trap:

• The trap is triggered when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, often leading to war
• Examples include the Peloponnesian War, World War I, and the War of Spanish Succession
• Graham Allison argues that the US-China relationship is currently in this trap

The Rise of China:

• China is not just another great power but will become the biggest power in history
• The US has been the architect and guardian of the international order, which China aims to challenge
• Historically, 12 out of 16 cases of such rivalries have resulted in war

Strategic Imagination:

• Wars are not inevitable but structurally likely in Thucydides' Trap situations
• Strategic imagination can bend otherwise negative trends or physics of the situation
• The Cold War between the US and Soviet Union came close to war multiple times but ultimately avoided it due to strategic imagination

India's Role:

• India could potentially be a serious rival to China or remain as it has been historically – a country that never fully rises
• India has internal complexities, including religious tensions and governance challenges under Modi

US Foreign Policy Establishment:

• Post 9/11 reactions led to questionable decisions like invading Iraq and staying in Afghanistan for 20 years
• There was little debate within the policy elite during this period, resulting in bellicose rhetoric rather than thoughtful discussions

Potential Conflict with China:

• The US is not equipped for a hot conflict with China, impacting how China strategizes its next moves
• The US defense industrial complex could be more efficient and effective with proper reform

Cooperation vs Competition:

• There are incentives for both cooperation and competition between the US and China
• Survival, shared challenges like climate change, and interconnected financial systems provide reasons to cooperate
• More strategic imagination is needed to find ways to cooperate rather than defaulting to posturing or war