Image of podcast

Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe on what we've learned this month, Nvidia earnings, the Wawa story

The Compound and Friends

Tue Feb 20 2024



Nvidia Earnings Anticipation:

  • Nvidia is set to release its financial results, with a remarkable 240% revenue increase from the same period last year and earnings expected to rise from $1 billion to $10 billion.
  • The upcoming earnings call has generated significant interest in the financial markets, with Dan Ives highlighting the heightened focus on Wall Street during this report.
  • Being one of the top global market cap companies, Nvidia's stock performance has been exceptionally strong over the years.

Stock-Bond Correlations Impacting Portfolios:

  • Stock-bond correlations have surged to some of the highest levels seen in two decades, affecting portfolio diversification strategies significantly.
  • Traditionally moving inversely, stocks and bonds are now showing closer movements due to uncertainties surrounding future interest rates, making investment decisions challenging as both asset classes tend to move together rather than offset each other's fluctuations.

Small Caps Performance and Super Micro Computer Influence:

  • Small-cap stocks like SMCI have experienced notable price swings this year, impacting indices such as the Russell 2000.
  • SMCI saw an impressive surge from $300 to $1,000 within a short span before retracing slightly back down to around $800.
  • Such rapid movements in specific small-cap stocks can indicate speculative bubbles or hyper-cyclical trades occurring in the market.

Tech Stocks as Career Hedge for Millennials:

  • Investing in tech stocks is viewed as a strategic career hedge for millennials due to disruptive technologies shaping future job landscapes.
  • Tech stocks have consistently outperformed other sectors and demonstrated resilience, making them appealing long-term investments for ensuring career sustainability amidst technological disruptions.

Market Insights Through DataTrek Research:

  • Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe provide valuable insights into various market trends through their YouTube channel and research publications at DataTrek Research.
  • Their analysis covers critical topics like the impact of interest rates on large-cap stocks, stock-bond correlations influencing portfolios, small-cap performance dynamics including examples like SMCI, and offering career advice related to tech investments for younger generations.

Waste Management and Industrial Sector Surge:

  • Waste Management's stock has recently surged parabolically, akin to a breakthrough in drug development utilizing AI technology. The chart reflects a substantial upward trend.
  • The industrial sector, exemplified by companies like Lockheed and Raytheon, is currently witnessing substantial breakouts with vertical growth trends. This surge includes various major players such as Uber.
  • Notably, even struggling stocks such as Boeing and FedEx are showing signs of bottoming out amidst the industry-wide surge. This indicates a broader positive trend within the industrial sector.

Sintas Corp: A Uniform Monopoly Giant:

  • Sintas Corp has experienced an astounding 65,000% increase over the last 40 years, establishing itself as one of the most successful stories in stock market history. Their specialization lies in providing uniforms for various professions.
  • The company stands out due to its crucial role in supplying uniforms across different sectors including janitors, police officers, nurses, and more. Each uniform bears the distinctive Sintas tag.
  • An examination of Sintas' stock chart reveals a remarkable uptrend with periods of consolidation that underscore its resilience during challenging economic times. The chart showcases consistent growth over time.

Capital One Acquiring Discover Financial Services:

  • Capital One's acquisition of Discover Financial Services could potentially disrupt the dominance of Visa and MasterCard in credit card issuance. This move may lead to increased competition and cost savings for consumers through enhanced options.
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the merger as detrimental to financial stability and competition; however, analysts suggest that it might lead to cost savings for consumers through increased competition. Her concerns were met with differing perspectives from experts analyzing potential benefits.
  • Dan Dolev from Mizuho highlights that Capital One may leverage Discover's debit network for potential benefits in transaction fees and enhance competitive positioning against major networks. This strategic move could result in operational advantages for Capital One within the credit card industry landscape.

Company Stock Performance and Investment Potential:

  • Companies that consistently increase their profits year over year are viewed as attractive investment prospects, even before incorporating AI technology into their operations.
  • The anticipation is that the integration of AI into these companies' products will further boost profitability in the future.
  • Waste Management's strong historical performance serves as a positive indicator, suggesting potential ongoing growth in its stock price.

Retailer Transformation: Abercrombie & Fitch:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch has strategically revamped its business approach and product offerings, with a focus on athleisure wear and expanding beyond its traditional target market of individuals in their twenties.
  • The company's reinvention is evident through new strategies aimed at appealing to a broader range of consumers, showcasing a significant resurgence from past perceptions.

Evolution of Beverage Brands: Vitamin Water and Body Armor:

  • Vitamin Water, once a popular beverage brand, has experienced a decline post-acquisition by Coca-Cola. 50 Cent's involvement in marketing was highlighted during this period.
  • Transitioning to body armor drinks, which are positioned as athletic-oriented sports beverages similar to Gatorade, presents promising opportunities within the beverage market due to their athletic appeal.