Fri Jan 05 2024

Biggest Political Winner of 2024:

• Vladimir Putin is predicted to be the biggest political winner in 2024 due to his stabilized economy, military advantage in Ukraine, and increased influence globally.

Biggest Business Winner of 2024:

• Commodities businesses are expected to experience a significant boom in 2024 due to underinvestment relative to demand, economic activity strength, and cash influx into commodities markets.
• Bootstrapped profitable startups are anticipated as potential winners in 2024 due to underestimated cost-effectiveness in copying existing business models and survival advantages for profitable startups.
• Anduril's Roadrunner product, a drone interceptor system designed for ground-based air defense, is expected to be a significant business winner in 2024. It addresses the challenge of asymmetric warfare with cost-effective solutions.

Language Models' Impact on Content Industry:

• Training data owners such as media outlets (e.g., New York Times), Reddit, Twitter, YouTube are expected to emerge as winners in 2024 due to the growing importance of training data for language models.
• A proposed new business model involves federating chat GPT accounts with subscription services like the New York Times or paying licensing fees. This approach could lead to a sustainable solution benefiting both language models and copyright holders.

Licensing Deal Between New York Times and Tech Companies:

• Anticipation of a potential nine-figure settlement for previous content usage and an ongoing licensing fee for continued access to training data, particularly in relation to Axel Springer's deal with Business Insider.
• Predictions about the agreement allowing queries involving New York Times' content within various platforms, potentially creating different models based on specific source inclusion or exclusion.

Global Economic Outlook:

• Concerns regarding Germany's economy being impacted by factors such as the loss of cheap Russian gas and competition from Chinese automotive industry.
• Speculation arising about a potential rift in NATO involving Turkey due to its alignment with certain geopolitical interests.

Technology Industry Projections:

• Anticipation surrounding Apple's potential advancements in generative AI and entry into the AI market, possibly through a revamped Siri or other initiatives.
• Predictions focusing on shifts in enterprise values within the AI sector, particularly concerning OpenAI's market performance and expectations related to technological advancements.

Geopolitical Risks:

• Contrarian beliefs include scenarios of increased global conflict escalation resulting in tactical use of nuclear weapons. These discussions underscore heightened tensions across various regions and potential impacts on international alliances.

Best Performing Asset of 2024:

• Uranium tracking ETF, URA, is predicted to be the best performing asset due to a shift in demand driven by ESG and conflict, with China building up nuclear power stations.
• Public software index and late-stage SaaS companies are expected to face valuation contractions, leading to a prediction that public tech stocks will outperform private late-stage tech stocks.

Worst Performing Asset of 2024:

• Energy stocks and junk debt related to energy are anticipated to be the worst performing assets due to potential conflicts escalating in various regions such as the Middle East, Venezuela, Ethiopia, and unresolved issues with the Houthis.

Anticipated Trend - Efficiency through AI and Outsourcing:

• Anticipated trend focuses on increased outsourcing leveraging work-from-home paradigms for cost efficiency, including integrating robots, AI, and software to enhance productivity while reducing costs.

Most Anticipated Trend of 2024 - Bitcoin's Mainstream Adoption:

• The most important year for Bitcoin's mainstream adoption is predicted due to imminent approval of series of ETFs. This could lead to widespread understanding and acquisition of Bitcoin by mainstream consumers.

Media Expectations for 2024:

• Highly anticipated media includes the release of Gladiator 2 and House of Dragon season 2. Additionally, there is anticipation around the book "The Founders" being turned into a television series produced by Drake's company Dream Crew.

Media Trends for 2024:

• Mr. Beast, a YouTuber with over 100 million subscribers, is anticipated to continue producing high-quality content and event-based viewing.
• AI-generated news, where broadcasters present news in various visual formats, is expected to gain traction in 2024, offering personalized news feeds through video, text, or audio.
• Real-time generative video using news feeds as input will likely emerge in 2024, allowing users to interact with and curate their own personal news feed.

Potential Impact of AI on News Delivery:

• AI models are being fine-tuned to create visually appealing individuals who can deliver the news or engage with viewers effectively.
• The use of AI tools for presenting objective news and fact-checking could be an emerging trend but may also lead to biased delivery based on individual preferences.

Emotional Outlook for 2024:

• Participants expressed varied emotional outlooks for 2024: turbulent, enthusiastic, cautious and pensive.
• Concerns about economic instability due to high debt levels were highlighted as potential sources of conflict and anxiety.

Economic Predictions and Budget Discussions:

• Discussions revolved around the potential impact of debt ceiling increase agreements on budget decisions and possible austerity measures.
• Consideration was given to the likelihood of temporary budget cuts leading to discussions regarding discretionary spending and its effect on Washington elites' reactions.